Association for Behavior Analysis International

The Association for Behavior Analysis International® (ABAI) is a nonprofit membership organization with the mission to contribute to the well-being of society by developing, enhancing, and supporting the growth and vitality of the science of behavior analysis through research, education, and practice.

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33rd Annual Convention; San Diego, CA; 2007

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Paper Session #386
A System for the Analysis of Behavioral Contingencies
Monday, May 28, 2007
1:30 PM–2:20 PM
Cunningham A
Area: TPC
Chair: Heidi L. Eyre (Jacksonville State University)
 
A General Language for the Analysis of Behavioral Contingencies.
Domain: Theory
FRANCIS MECHNER (The Mechner Foundation)
 
Abstract: A detailed understanding of the prevailing behavioral contingencies is a precondition for the management of most human affairs. To the degree that behavioral contingencies are understood, the knowledge base of behavioral science can be brought to bear on their design. This paper presents a language and syntax for analyzing and diagramming any system of behavioral contingencies, including the complex ones encountered in the fields of law, business, public affairs, sociology, education, and economics. The language and syntax for such analysis, and its associated notation system, specifies the “if, then” relationships between acts and their consequences, and between the termination of time periods and their consequences. The syntax includes modifiers of acts to indicate their agents, and the consequences’ probabilities, valences, magnitudes, and parties that perceive or misperceive them. Analyses and diagrams of wide-ranging examples like fraud, betting, blackmail, various games, theft, contracts, racing, competition, mutual deterrence, feuding, bargaining, deception, loan transactions, insurance, elections, global warming, personal tipping, vigilance, sexual overtures, decision making, mistaken identity, etc. are presented as illustrations of the ability of the proposed three-term vocabulary, (acts, consequences, and time period terminations) and the associated simple syntax, to generate the myriad nuances of meaning needed to provide the required generality and reach.
 
Behavioral Contingency Analysis: A Technology for Managing Human Affairs.
Domain: Theory
FRANCIS MECHNER (The Mechner Foundation)
 
Abstract: This paper sketches out a possible new discipline with wide-ranging applications. The contingency analysis process would begin by the user responding to a computer-administered set of prompts to register all the relevant known information about the situation to be analyzed. Examples of such information: • The involved parties and their potential acts. • The possible consequences of each of these acts and their probabilities and valences for each party. • The parties that would perceive or misperceive each of the consequences. • Acts that would avert any of the listed consequences. Software (to be developed) then converts the entered information into virtual multi-dimensional behavioral contingency structures and models the way these would play out. This would require the entry of a data base of the effects of presenting and withholding rewards and punishments of various relative magnitudes and probabilities, of cues regarding prevailing contingencies, and of the behavioral effects of time factors. If dissatisfied with the results predicted by the model, the user would iteratively revisit the original answers to the prompts and thereby fine-tune the outcomes of the simulations. This general method could be valuable in operations research, and in computer modeling and simulation in any area of human affairs.
 
 

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